NFL Picks for This Weekend: Shannons Weekend Sixer
Six Pack is loaded: no miracle parlays, no motivational speeches — just the cleanest angles we could find after combing through injuries, usage, and the numbers. Pick your favorites, fade the rest, and if you’re the “show me the math” type, ATSwins.ai has the projections.
Rams vs. Panthers — Rams Team Total OVER 28
The Rams finished the regular season #1 in scoring at 30.5 points per game and they’ve been even hotter lately—184 points over their last 5 games (36.8 ppg). Carolina’s defense is more “fine” than “fearsome” (allowed 22.4 ppg on the year, 111 points in their last 5), and notably the Rams already hung 28 in Charlotte in the Week 13 loss despite a 3–0 turnover disadvantage, so a cleaner game (or even one fewer Stafford mistake) gets it into 29–31 range. With the Rams around -10 and the game total around 46.5, the implied Rams score is roughly 28+. The main “don’t get cute” risk is Rams RG Kevin Dotson OUT (big for interior protection/run efficiency), plus Ferguson questionable. I’m okay riding the Rams offense and comfortable backing the Over.
Packers vs Bears — Josh Jacobs OVER 17.5 Rush Attempts
The setup points to Green Bay leaning run-heavy and using Jacobs as the volume engine. This Wild Card game is at Soldier Field on Saturday night (Jan. 10) , and the forecast is calling for periods of snow with increasing breeze, exactly the kind of environment where play-calling skews conservative and teams stack carries. Chicago’s run defense has been attackable all year (5.0 opponent YPC; 2,287 rush yards allowed on 457 carries), and Green Bay has shown it’s comfortable being a ground-first offense (492 rushing attempts in the regular season). Within that, Jacobs is still the clear lead back: 234 carries in 15 games (15.6 per game), and we’ve already seen the “feature him vs Chicago” script hit, he logged 20 carries vs the Bears on Dec. 7. The biggest boost for this prop is health/context: Jacobs is off the injury report and has said he feels as good as he has in weeks, while the Packers are optimistic RT Zach Tom plays, which matters in a trenchy, weather game. Add in Jordan Love returning after missing time (very plausible Green Bay wants to protect him early with a steadier run script), and you’ve got a clean path to 18+: keep it close or play from ahead, and Jacobs’ playoff “closer” volume shows up.
Packers vs. Bears — Under 46
I’m backing the Under 46, because this sets up like a classic “Soldier Field in January” kind of night: forecasts have it around freezing with periods of snow and it getting breezy/windy (enough to mess with the downfield passing + kicking game). On top of that, the market’s already been running to the Under—the total opened around 47.5 and is being dealt closer to the mid-40s (44.5 in spots), which tracks with weather + playoff pace expectations. Injury-wise, Green Bay has multiple questionable bodies (including WR Dontayvion Wicks still in concussion protocol) while Chicago is missing DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson (plus a couple other concussion outs), but weather tends to mute the impact of secondary injuries because teams get more conservative and lean run/short game. And we’ve already seen these two play lower-scoring football recently: the last two meetings finished 28–21 (49) and 22–16 OT (38)—so even with one “normal-ish” total game, the other was a grind, and this one projects closer to that grind with the wind/snow angle.
Bills vs Jaguars — OVER 50.5
On paper, we’ve got two top-end scoring profiles: Buffalo averaged 28.3 PPG and Jacksonville 27.9 PPG this season (a 56.2 PPG combined baseline). Jacksonville also comes in red-hot , finishing the regular season on an 8-game win streak and just hung 41 in Week 18, with Trevor Lawrence putting together a monster year (Reuters noted he set a franchise TD mark). The venue/weather angle helps the over too—EverBank looks mild (around low 60s, light wind), which is basically “go score points” conditions compared to most January playoff games. And the key availability note: Josh Allen practiced fully (foot) per the latest injury reporting, so theres no betting on a “limited Allen” situation. The main risk is that both defenses were solid by points allowed (JAX 19.8, BUF 21.5) and Buffalo may be light on a couple skill pieces (e.g., Ty Johnson/Joshua Palmer listed as DNP/limited-week types), so a few stalled red-zone trips could put us in a 27-23 type sweat. If Allen is truly full-go and Jacksonville keeps playing at this tempo at home, we’re looking at a 31–27 type of track meet and the matchup + conditions say that’s absolutely on the table.
Texans vs Steelers — UNDER 39.5
Under 39.5 is the play because this matchup sets up like a “points are gonna be work” kind of night: the total has moving down at multiple books so make sure to shop around. We’re also getting a classic Pittsburgh January environment (cold with snow/flurries possible in the game window), which tends to drag efficiency and make sustained drives harder to stack . On the field, Houston’s defense has been the anchor all season (17.4 points allowed per game) , and Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t exactly built to win a track meet, especially if the run game is even slightly compromised (Jaylen Warren popped up as a DNP due to illness on the Thursday report). So between the market direction, weather, and Houston’s ability to make every yard feel expensive, Under 39.5 is what I’m backing.
Patriots vs. Chargers — Patriots -3
New England earned the No. 2 seed at 14–3 and hosts the 11–6 Chargers, and the biggest macro edge is still the Patriots’ steadier offense led by Drake Maye (4,394 yards, 31 TD / 8 INT, 113.5 passer rating). The injury angle leans slightly Patriots too: the Chargers had RB Omarion Hampton (ankle) DNP and OLB Bud Dupree (hamstring) DNP Thursday, while Justin Herbert was a full participant; on the Pats side, the only true “red alert” is their OL health, with C Garrett Bradbury (illness) and T Vederian Lowe (illness) DNP plus T Thayer Munford Jr. (knee) DNP—if one or two of those clear by the weekend, it’s a big boost for laying a field goal. Add in Foxborough conditions (cold with wind, possible wet/snow mix), which tends to favor the home team’s comfort level and communication, and -3 looks pretty good.
BONUS: 49ers vs. Eagles — Jalen Hurts OVER 208.5 Passing Yards
For context, Hurts finished the regular season with 3,224 passing yards and a 25–6 TD–INT line, so 209 yards isn’t asking for a “carry the team” game, just a normal-ish passing day. The bigger angle is San Francisco’s pass defense profile: they’ve been leaky and low-disruption, sitting at 4,110 pass yards allowed, 68.15% completions allowed, a poor 0.12 defensive EPA/pass, and a tiny 3.16% sack rate (meaning QBs tend to get clean, on-schedule throws). On top of that, the 49ers are banged up at the second level (linebacker depth is a real issue), and they’re monitoring key bodies overall heading into this Wild Card spot, which matters because Philly’s middle-of-field stuff (especially to tight ends) can stack completions fast. The Eagles’ injury report is trending positive too: Lane Johnson is back practicing (limited again), which is a big deal for pass pro and overall offensive stability. Add in that the game is at Lincoln Financial Field with a forecast that doesn’t scream “passing nightmare” (mid-40s around kickoff, mainly clouds , and the over is live. The main risk is game script—if Philly leans heavily on the run and plays from in front, Hurts might not need to throw a ton—but against a defense that’s allowed efficient passing all year, 208.5 is a beatable bar even on modest attempts.
Six Pack is set. Stay in your lane with units, don’t chase like you’re down 28 in Madden, and let the card unfold. If you need extra action, do yourself a favor and scan ATSwins.ai first so you’re not guessing with your wallet.